Saturday, July 12, 2008

Oil speculation or real prices?

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I found this interesting blog from http://www.autoblog.com about the first trader who bought a barrel of oil for $100. As we approach the $150 mark this month, I wonder if the same oil trader (who apparently did this just for a laugh, or for being able to say he/she was the first to buy at $100) will push oil again to $150? If the trader who bought at $100 had held on to their $100 purchase for a while longer, he or she could have walked away with a fine profit. Seeing traders like this does make me think about oil speculation and I feel there may be some to a degree. However, I think it is very marginal (5% max is my feeling).

All the fuss from the media about mass
speculation seems way out of proportion to me.
This is my 2 cents...

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One dude caused oil to hit $100/barrel

It was reported here yesterday that the price of a barrel of oil hit $100 for the first time ever. What actually happened was that one guy bought oil slightly above market price just so he could say "I was the first schmuck to buy oil at $100 a barrel!" The trader hasn't been identified, but after buying the minimum lot of 1,000 barrels from a colleague, he then sold them right back at a loss. It isn't clear what oil was trading at when he bought the barrels, but for his $100 per barrel order, he got $99.40 per barrel return. That means his moment of worldwide fame cost him $600, along with a few hours of jittery markets. Even if it was artificially induced, he was the first, and it probably won't be long before people are spending that much for real: Goldman Sachs predicts oil to be at $105 by year's end.

From: http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/03/one-dude-caused-oil-to-hit-100-barrel/

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