Thursday, July 31, 2008

Truth in comedy

Funny Gas Sign by Ben and Laura.

I have been taking improv commedy classes with the Improv Olympia at IOWest Hollywood and one of the key ingredients I learned in comedy is finding truth. This picture I found on flickr.com seems genuine. It was funny to me because the polite use of the word 'sorry' tells us the owner of the gas station has taken personal responsibility to consumers for the painful price at the pump, despite having no control of the gas prices! The 'Sorry' does not quite make sense and is a reflection of how everyone feels --the owner included! A gas station expressing emotion and sharing the pain makes it very funny!

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51JP1YWAP1L._SL500_AA240_.jpg



By the way, shows in IOWest in Hollywood are out of commission until the end of August as some idiot drove a suv car into the bar, fortunately during the day at 4pm when no one was there, so no one got hurt. Apparently this driver going up Hollywood blvd was completely drunk...

Monday, July 28, 2008

9.6 billion miles less traveled in the USA in May

9,600,000,000 less miles traveled in USA!



More positive news for the environment:

Soaring gasoline prices reduce highway miles in the USA by 9.6 billion miles (3.7 percent).

I am LOVING it here in LA. There seems to be so much less traffic on the roads than 2 years ago... http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessIndustry/idUKWBT00946920080729

Americans ditching the car article confirms this is happening:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/28/news/economy/driving/index.htm?postversion=2008072816

MUCH BETTER -- YEAHH!!!!

It is really happening....


Sunday, July 27, 2008

Making our own minds up as to why energy prices are rising


http://cybercarnet.net/public/img/blogger-logo.png
I no longer bother to read people's
arguments as to why gas prices are high...

Speculation... no speculation.... ?

To me, looking at some raw numbers is one easy way to understand why the gas prices are going up so fast. Prepare for a simple news story below with hard numbers that tells it how it is.... Pay attention, this is very interesting...

http://pioneer.utah.gov/images/gas.gif


U.S. Crude Oil Field Production
(Thousand Barrels per Day)

These numbers are going down.... USA oil production is down to the levels of 1948 before peak production of the 1970s.

Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9
1850's








0
1860's 1 6 8 7 6 7 10 9 10 12
1870's 14 14 17 24 30 33 25 37 42 55
1880's 72 76 83 64 66 60 77 77 75 96
1890's 126 149 138 133 135 145 167 166 152 156
1900's 174 190 243 275 320 369 347 455 488 502
1910's 574 604 609 681 728 770 822 919 920 1,037
1920's 1,210 1,294 1,527 2,007 1,951 1,700 2,112 2,469 2,463 2,760
1930's 2,460 2,332 2,145 2,481 2,488 2,723 3,001 3,500 3,324 3,464
1940's 4,107 3,847 3,796 4,125 4,584 4,695 4,749 5,088 5,520 5,046
1950's 5,407 6,158 6,256 6,458 6,342 6,807 7,151 7,170 6,710 7,054
1960's 7,035 7,183 7,332 7,542 7,614 7,804 8,295 8,810 9,096 9,238
1970's 9,637 9,463 9,441 9,208 8,774 8,375 8,132 8,245 8,707 8,552
1980's 8,597 8,572 8,649 8,688 8,879 8,971 8,680 8,349 8,140 7,613
1990's 7,355 7,417 7,171 6,847 6,662 6,560 6,465 6,452 6,252 5,881
2000's 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,178 5,102 5,103

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration



On the other hand, oil imports in the USA are up:

U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
from All Countries
(Thousand Barrels per Day)

11.8 % up since 2001- 2007 (Bush years)
11.5 % up from 1994- 2000 (Clinton years)
(23% up since the last two presidents were in office)


Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9
1970's


6,256 6,112 6,056 7,313 8,807 8,363 8,456
1980's 6,909 5,996 5,113 5,051 5,437 5,067 6,224 6,678 7,402 8,061
1990's 8,018 7,627 7,888 8,620 8,996 8,835 9,478 10,162 10,708 10,852
2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration



The same goes for Gas consumption... (consumption went down 18% during the crisis of the 1980s, then back up) We also see the 1991-1993 economic 1.9% slowdown but then consumption steadily rises 15% by 2007).


U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption
U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Product Supplied (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9
1970's


17,308 16,653 16,322 17,461 18,431 18,847 18,513
1980's 17,056 16,058 15,296 15,231 15,726 15,726 16,281 16,665 17,283 17,325
1990's 16,988 16,714 17,033 17,237 17,718 17,725 18,309 18,620 18,917 19,519
2000's 19,701 19,649 19,761 20,034 20,731 20,802 20,687 20,698

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Oil_price_increases_of_2004-2006

If we have another economic slowdown in 2008 twice as bad as 1991, the increased consumption from 1994 is still a 12.2% increase. This does not take into account global projection expected to rise 37% in the next 22 years including China, expected to import four times as much oil in 20 years from now:

Next, let's take a look at the gas prices:

(up 25% in one year)
Click on image to enlarge




Ouch... with global energy demand expected to rise from 85,000,000 barrels a day to 116,000,000 barrels by 2030 (double the population of 1980) and even with the 90 billion more barrels possibility from the defrosting arctic (a four year 85,000,000 per day global supply from the most expensive and difficult place on earth to extract oil, not to mention bad for the environment) this does not add up.

I have some advice....

Invest all your money into fuel efficiency devices now....

Energy prices are going to go up and once they go really high, fuel efficient products (solar and wind and electric cars) are also going to get pricey. Energy saving products will become the next gold. Now is the time to invest before the shit hits the [fossil fuel powered] fan!



Source borrowed from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html





(If you are wondering who supplies all the oil to the US, here is the list)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


All Countries
9,140 9,665 10,088 10,126 10,118 10,017

Persian Gulf
2,213 2,425 2,400 2,207 2,160 2,123

OPEC*
4,083 4,578 5,042 4,816 4,783 5,394

Algeria
30 112 215 228 362 443

Angola
321 363 306 456 513 496

Ecuador
100 139 232 276 272 198

Indonesia
50 26 34 19 16 15

Iran








Iraq
459 481 655 527 553 485

Kuwait
216 208 241 227 179 176

Libya


18 44 66 84

Nigeria
589 832 1,078 1,077 1,037 1,082

Qatar
9 0 4
1


Saudi Arabia
1,519 1,726 1,495 1,445 1,423 1,453

United Arab Emirates
10 10 5 9 5 9

Venezuela
1,201 1,183 1,297 1,241 1,142 1,150

Non OPEC*
5,058 5,087 5,046 5,310 5,335 4,623

Argentina
70 54 59 56 29 33

Australia
51 27 21 10 5 2

Azerbaijan
0


27 57

Bahamas








Bahrain








Belarus




2


Belize




1 1

Benin








Bolivia


1 1 2 3

Brazil
58 50 51 94 133 167

Brunei
10 28 15 14 17 11

Cameroon
12 12 18 3 2 26

Canada
1,445 1,549 1,616 1,633 1,802 1,864

Chad

3 57 74 95 77

Chile








China
20 13 14 24 19 6

Colombia
235 166 142 156 141 137

Congo (Brazzaville)
23 27 8 25 27 62

Congo (Kinshasa)
3 2 14 2
1

Denmark
3 10 2




Egypt



4 0 1

Equatorial Guinea
39 59 66 68 57 55

Estonia








Gabon
143 131 142 127 60 63

Georgia, Republic of








Germany


0




Guatemala
23 22 18 11 15 11

Guinea
1 1





Italy








Ivory Coast
4 4 5 20 4 0

Kazakhstan


9 12 4 9

Kyrgyzstan








Malaysia
9 21 18 10 7 1

Mauritania




3 3

Mexico
1,500 1,569 1,598 1,556 1,577 1,410

Netherlands


0




Netherlands Antilles


0




New Zealand








Norway
348 181 143 119 98 56

Oman
17 35 10 22 35 32

Papua New Guinea
4 2





Peru
10 8 1 4 4 5

Puerto Rico








Russia
85 151 158 199 108 112

Singapore



1 1


South Africa




3 7

Spain








Sweden








Syria
2 5 1
5 2

Thailand
2 2 1 2 7 14

Trinidad and Tobago
68 67 49 64 67 48

Tunisia




1 6

United Kingdom
405 359 238 224 130 102

Vietnam
20 25 25 31 42 31

Virgin Islands (U.S.)








Yemen
27 5 4 12 20 13



Tuesday, July 22, 2008

As cost of oil stays high, 7000 airline jobs disappear.

http://boeingblogs.com/randy/images/7000_ip.jpg

"It’s a nice round number, and looks pretty darn good
from overhead,
especially when several hundred Boeing
employees are actually
forming the numerals."

Archive picture from:
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2007/08/7000.html

Unfortunately, with oil prices remaining above $128 per barrel, this is costing United Airlines 7000 jobs and this sounds permanent as they will be looking to raise cash.
America's second biggest airline said it will reduce its workforce by 13 per cent - or 7,000 staff - and axe more than a sixth of domestic routes in a desperate attempt to cut costs to cope with the surging cost of fuel.http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4380298.ece

A lot of families are going to have to find other ways to pay Freddie Mac and Fannie May their mortgages. Ooops, I forgot, the government (tax payers) are going to bail these two institutions out with $25 billion dollars ($25,000,000,000). This is one fifth of the 125 billion cost of S&L bailout crisis, except this bailout only helps two companies, no where near one fifth of the 747 institutions as in the 1980s... I wonder who will be next? http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/cbo_gse_rescue_costestim/?postversion=2008072216

So United Airlines has plunged to a $2.73bn ($273 000,000,000) loss in the quarter compared to a profit of $274m ($000,274,000,000) during the same period last year, when oil was $73.03 which at the time was considered high. I can't be bothered to draw up a graph to show all the differences as I am sitting with a good glass of wine, but it sounds like a pretty astronomical difference to me. Sorry to spell out the bad news. The good news is on the way, there is lots of it. Take this one as an example:

"My life is better, not worse, without a car"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/22/cctracy122.xml

For once, I am at the forefront of a trend. Four months ago, I gave up my car. The decision was, in truth, rather forced upon me by the fact that I had to return it to my previous employer when I moved jobs. Still, I decided not to get another one.

The experiment has been a triumph. Not only has it become clear that this was a financially astute move, what with surging petrol prices and my habit of forgetting to pay the congestion charge.

It also turns out that I am at one with the zeitgeist. Our attitudes to travel are changing - trains, buses and bikes are in, cars and planes are out - and I just may be an agent of change.

Monday, July 21, 2008

World map of Peak Oil Production

With this "who has the oil" map, it is easy to see why the Middle East is so important!

The image “http://www.energybulletin.net/image/uploads//map01_1024.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

It also seems mad to hear Al Gore was slammed for calling 100% of electricity to come from cheap, clean sources within 10 years. You can s
upport Gore's challenge by signing this petition:"America must commit to producing 100% of our electricity from cheap, clean renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, within 10 years."

Here is a video about oil showing how demand is starting to exceed supply.





Latest news for today: July 22, 2008 - 2:54PM

Australian oil production has peaked: report
http://business.smh.com.au/business/australian-oil-production-has-peaked-report-20080722-3j63.html

Saturday, July 19, 2008

I don't need a bag

We went to see a gig on Sunset Blvd, Los Angeles, California in a French restaurant called Taix Thursday night. The ten piece band Soul Punk Swing played a song called I don't need a bag. They said if we typed "I don't Need A Bag" into youtube, we will see their song has a grand number of 57 views. Three days later today, the views are 1,671!



Obviously a lot of people share the feeling of madness when we receive bags, often doubled up and hardly filled.

Fortunately, Malibu are thinking of banning bags...
http://articles.latimes.com/2008/may/14/local/me-plastic14
Santa Monica is considering a ban...
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/emeraldcity/2008/02/santa-monica-a.html
For me, I have my own ChicoBag on my key ring. I use it a lot:

The image “http://www.bagselect.com/merchant2/graphics/products/ChicoBag/thumbs/Chico-Bag-Green.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
http://www.bagselect.com

By the way, I have no association with this company, the band or restaurant :)

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Ryanair changes altitude by providing less flights

From my July 6th post: Airlines could face serious problems I was observing the distinct correlation between Ryanair share price and Brent Crude Oil.
[ryanairStocksOil1.jpg]


Well, here we go.... I could see this coming....



Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Run on the bank in the USA July 2008

>>Intuitiveblogger April 1st 2008
>>
>>Does anyone feel we could see a run on the bank?
>>

Well, the American run on the Bank of 2008 is just beginning...
One guy (who had his life pension fund in Indy Mac) has just lost $68,000 dollars.
This is serious folks...... Watch out, Washington Mutual could be next!


The line in the bank was very long in Pasadena:


Monday, July 14, 2008

Double BLOG today: High Oil + Bank Run on Bastille day 2008

The USA are spending $42.8 billion (extra) a month on oil compared to this time last year!

http://www.fidjissimo.com/wp-content/Embarrassed.png

I forget... who again killed the electric car two years ago?


Price of Oil - One year comparison:

July 15th 2007:
$73.99 (Equates to $45.9 billion USA spending a month)

July 15th 2008:
$144.75 (Equates to $89.8 billion USA spending a month) Repeating: $42.8 billion extra!
Formula:
Barrels * price * 30 days = Cost of one month of oil

20.68700 * 144.75 * 30 = 89 833.2975

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=20.687*143*30&btnG=Search

Oil spending today has increased in the USA by 49% in one year from $45.9 billion a month to $89.8 billion a month... ouch!

*I use figures for North America as an example. The same logic applies to everyone who uses oil!


Today, MSNBC asks the following question:
Isn’t it time to tap U.S. emergency oil reserves?
With gasoline prices showing no signs of easing, a number of readers are wondering why the U.S. doesn’t tap into the millions of barrels of crude oil it has stored up in case of an emergency. If this isn’t an emergency, they’re wondering, what is? http://ww.msnbc.msn.com/id/25643936/

Here is an article written on July 15th last year complaining about the prices at $73.99.
(Ouch again!)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/15/AR2007071501412.html?tid=informbox

The image “http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2008/07/15/ccecon115.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

Run on the Bank in the USA (Bastille day) 2008

SYDNEY MORNING HERALD:
Run on banks spells big trouble for US Treasury
IN A modern financial system nothing is more frightening than a run on the bank. The US has now suffered a series of them, and they are escalating in size and scope, posing a serious threat to an already reeling economy. Read on!

YES, intuition tells me people are going MAD. I drove past the Indymac bank building in Pasadena on Sunday and thought to myself.... "this bank is not the same today as it was yesterday, dear-O-dear-O-dear, and this apparently is still only the beginning". Here is the Indybank location on google maps: http://maps.google.com=indymac+pasadena"

http://performinglanguageworkshops.com/indytest.png


IntuitiveBlogger: On April Fools day (04/01/2008) I wrote the following in my blog: IntuitiveBlogger
"Does anyone feel we could see a run on the bank, as what happened in England last September with Northern Rock? I don't see this as a joke. I think it could happen very easily and in a matter of months."

Well folks, I have to formally announce to you, this has actually happened TODAY (Bastille day July 14 2008) in the USA!

RUN ON THE BANK: Indymac / PASADENA USA

Click on images to read the newspaper stories:

The image “http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20080712&t=2&i=5134576&w=192&r=2008-07-12T031034Z_01_WA0000141_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE3” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Click on any image to read news story
IndyMac
Click on any image to read news story
Customers wait outside
Click on any image to read news story
http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2008-07/40919045.jpg
Click on any image to read news story
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20080712/0013729e477109e2d4f556.jpg
Click on any image to read news story
http://media.pressofatlanticcity.com/smedia/2008/07/13/16/588-IndyMac_.sff.standalone.prod_affiliate.101.jpg
Click on any image to read news story
The image “http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080714/2008_07_14t131931_450x295_us_indymac_fdic.jpg?x=400&y=262&sig=c.ONwcawjEdP2vmVK82Azg--” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Click on any image to read news story
The image “http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080713/2008_07_11t202453_450x340_us_indymac.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Click on any image to read news story
The image “http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080714/i/r4156053034.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Click on any image to read news story
The image “http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2008/07/11/ba-indymac_0498772292.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Click on any image to read news story
The image “http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080714/2008_07_14t141406_450x311_us_indymac.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

The image “http://www.harkphoto.com/052504cows1.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

We are hearing this is just be the beginning....

(Some people are in deep S. H. eye. T)


The guardian.co.uk: Many more US bank failures likely after IndyMac

CNN: After IndyMac's failure, which bank could be next?

Yahoo Finance: Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail


Saturday, July 12, 2008

Oil speculation or real prices?

The image “http://graphics.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/AP_Photo/2008/07/11/1215757967_0235/539w.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

I found this interesting blog from http://www.autoblog.com about the first trader who bought a barrel of oil for $100. As we approach the $150 mark this month, I wonder if the same oil trader (who apparently did this just for a laugh, or for being able to say he/she was the first to buy at $100) will push oil again to $150? If the trader who bought at $100 had held on to their $100 purchase for a while longer, he or she could have walked away with a fine profit. Seeing traders like this does make me think about oil speculation and I feel there may be some to a degree. However, I think it is very marginal (5% max is my feeling).

All the fuss from the media about mass
speculation seems way out of proportion to me.
This is my 2 cents...

___________________________________________________

One dude caused oil to hit $100/barrel

It was reported here yesterday that the price of a barrel of oil hit $100 for the first time ever. What actually happened was that one guy bought oil slightly above market price just so he could say "I was the first schmuck to buy oil at $100 a barrel!" The trader hasn't been identified, but after buying the minimum lot of 1,000 barrels from a colleague, he then sold them right back at a loss. It isn't clear what oil was trading at when he bought the barrels, but for his $100 per barrel order, he got $99.40 per barrel return. That means his moment of worldwide fame cost him $600, along with a few hours of jittery markets. Even if it was artificially induced, he was the first, and it probably won't be long before people are spending that much for real: Goldman Sachs predicts oil to be at $105 by year's end.

From: http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/03/one-dude-caused-oil-to-hit-100-barrel/

___________________________________________________