Thursday, July 31, 2008
Truth in comedy
I have been taking improv commedy classes with the Improv Olympia at IOWest Hollywood and one of the key ingredients I learned in comedy is finding truth. This picture I found on flickr.com seems genuine. It was funny to me because the polite use of the word 'sorry' tells us the owner of the gas station has taken personal responsibility to consumers for the painful price at the pump, despite having no control of the gas prices! The 'Sorry' does not quite make sense and is a reflection of how everyone feels --the owner included! A gas station expressing emotion and sharing the pain makes it very funny!
By the way, shows in IOWest in Hollywood are out of commission until the end of August as some idiot drove a suv car into the bar, fortunately during the day at 4pm when no one was there, so no one got hurt. Apparently this driver going up Hollywood blvd was completely drunk...
Monday, July 28, 2008
9.6 billion miles less traveled in the USA in May
More positive news for the environment:
Soaring gasoline prices reduce highway miles in the USA by 9.6 billion miles (3.7 percent).
I am LOVING it here in LA. There seems to be so much less traffic on the roads than 2 years ago... http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessIndustry/idUKWBT00946920080729Americans ditching the car article confirms this is happening:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/28/news/economy/driving/index.htm?postversion=2008072816 MUCH BETTER -- YEAHH!!!!
It is really happening....
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Making our own minds up as to why energy prices are rising
I no longer bother to read people's arguments as to why gas prices are high... Speculation... no speculation.... ? To me, looking at some raw numbers is one easy way to understand why the gas prices are going up so fast. Prepare for a simple news story below with hard numbers that tells it how it is.... Pay attention, this is very interesting... |
U.S. Crude Oil Field Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) |
These numbers are going down.... USA oil production is down to the levels of 1948 before peak production of the 1970s. |
Decade | Year-0 | Year-1 | Year-2 | Year-3 | Year-4 | Year-5 | Year-6 | Year-7 | Year-8 | Year-9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1850's | 0 | |||||||||
1860's | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
1870's | 14 | 14 | 17 | 24 | 30 | 33 | 25 | 37 | 42 | 55 |
1880's | 72 | 76 | 83 | 64 | 66 | 60 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 96 |
1890's | 126 | 149 | 138 | 133 | 135 | 145 | 167 | 166 | 152 | 156 |
1900's | 174 | 190 | 243 | 275 | 320 | 369 | 347 | 455 | 488 | 502 |
1910's | 574 | 604 | 609 | 681 | 728 | 770 | 822 | 919 | 920 | 1,037 |
1920's | 1,210 | 1,294 | 1,527 | 2,007 | 1,951 | 1,700 | 2,112 | 2,469 | 2,463 | 2,760 |
1930's | 2,460 | 2,332 | 2,145 | 2,481 | 2,488 | 2,723 | 3,001 | 3,500 | 3,324 | 3,464 |
1940's | 4,107 | 3,847 | 3,796 | 4,125 | 4,584 | 4,695 | 4,749 | 5,088 | 5,520 | 5,046 |
1950's | 5,407 | 6,158 | 6,256 | 6,458 | 6,342 | 6,807 | 7,151 | 7,170 | 6,710 | 7,054 |
1960's | 7,035 | 7,183 | 7,332 | 7,542 | 7,614 | 7,804 | 8,295 | 8,810 | 9,096 | 9,238 |
1970's | 9,637 | 9,463 | 9,441 | 9,208 | 8,774 | 8,375 | 8,132 | 8,245 | 8,707 | 8,552 |
1980's | 8,597 | 8,572 | 8,649 | 8,688 | 8,879 | 8,971 | 8,680 | 8,349 | 8,140 | 7,613 |
1990's | 7,355 | 7,417 | 7,171 | 6,847 | 6,662 | 6,560 | 6,465 | 6,452 | 6,252 | 5,881 |
2000's | 5,822 | 5,801 | 5,746 | 5,681 | 5,419 | 5,178 | 5,102 | 5,103 |
On the other hand, oil imports in the USA are up:
U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports from All Countries (Thousand Barrels per Day) |
11.8 % up since 2001- 2007 (Bush years) 11.5 % up from 1994- 2000 (Clinton years) (23% up since the last two presidents were in office) |
Decade | Year-0 | Year-1 | Year-2 | Year-3 | Year-4 | Year-5 | Year-6 | Year-7 | Year-8 | Year-9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1970's | 6,256 | 6,112 | 6,056 | 7,313 | 8,807 | 8,363 | 8,456 | |||
1980's | 6,909 | 5,996 | 5,113 | 5,051 | 5,437 | 5,067 | 6,224 | 6,678 | 7,402 | 8,061 |
1990's | 8,018 | 7,627 | 7,888 | 8,620 | 8,996 | 8,835 | 9,478 | 10,162 | 10,708 | 10,852 |
2000's | 11,459 | 11,871 | 11,530 | 12,264 | 13,145 | 13,714 | 13,707 | 13,439 |
The same goes for Gas consumption... (consumption went down 18% during the crisis of the 1980s, then back up) We also see the 1991-1993 economic 1.9% slowdown but then consumption steadily rises 15% by 2007).
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Oil_price_increases_of_2004-2006
If we have another economic slowdown in 2008 twice as bad as 1991, the increased consumption from 1994 is still a 12.2% increase. This does not take into account global projection expected to rise 37% in the next 22 years including China, expected to import four times as much oil in 20 years from now:
Next, let's take a look at the gas prices:
(up 25% in one year) Click on image to enlarge
Ouch... with global energy demand expected to rise from 85,000,000 barrels a day to 116,000,000 barrels by 2030 (double the population of 1980) and even with the 90 billion more barrels possibility from the defrosting arctic (a four year 85,000,000 per day global supply from the most expensive and difficult place on earth to extract oil, not to mention bad for the environment) this does not add up.
I have some advice....
Invest all your money into fuel efficiency devices now....
Energy prices are going to go up and once they go really high, fuel efficient products (solar and wind and electric cars) are also going to get pricey. Energy saving products will become the next gold. Now is the time to invest before the shit hits the [fossil fuel powered] fan!
Source borrowed from: http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html
(If you are wondering who supplies all the oil to the US, here is the list)
2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9,140 | 9,665 | 10,088 | 10,126 | 10,118 | 10,017 | |||
| 2,213 | 2,425 | 2,400 | 2,207 | 2,160 | 2,123 | |||
| 4,083 | 4,578 | 5,042 | 4,816 | 4,783 | 5,394 | |||
| 30 | 112 | 215 | 228 | 362 | 443 | |||
| 321 | 363 | 306 | 456 | 513 | 496 | |||
| 100 | 139 | 232 | 276 | 272 | 198 | |||
| 50 | 26 | 34 | 19 | 16 | 15 | |||
| |||||||||
| 459 | 481 | 655 | 527 | 553 | 485 | |||
| 216 | 208 | 241 | 227 | 179 | 176 | |||
| 18 | 44 | 66 | 84 | |||||
| 589 | 832 | 1,078 | 1,077 | 1,037 | 1,082 | |||
| 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| 1,519 | 1,726 | 1,495 | 1,445 | 1,423 | 1,453 | |||
| 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | |||
| 1,201 | 1,183 | 1,297 | 1,241 | 1,142 | 1,150 | |||
| 5,058 | 5,087 | 5,046 | 5,310 | 5,335 | 4,623 | |||
| 70 | 54 | 59 | 56 | 29 | 33 | |||
| 51 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 0 | 27 | 57 | ||||||
| |||||||||
| |||||||||
| 2 | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | |||||||
| |||||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||
| 58 | 50 | 51 | 94 | 133 | 167 | |||
| 10 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 11 | |||
| 12 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 26 | |||
| 1,445 | 1,549 | 1,616 | 1,633 | 1,802 | 1,864 | |||
| 3 | 57 | 74 | 95 | 77 | ||||
| |||||||||
| 20 | 13 | 14 | 24 | 19 | 6 | |||
| 235 | 166 | 142 | 156 | 141 | 137 | |||
| 23 | 27 | 8 | 25 | 27 | 62 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | 10 | 2 | ||||||
| 4 | 0 | 1 | ||||||
| 39 | 59 | 66 | 68 | 57 | 55 | |||
| |||||||||
| 143 | 131 | 142 | 127 | 60 | 63 | |||
| |||||||||
| 0 | ||||||||
| 23 | 22 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 11 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||||||
| |||||||||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | |||
| 9 | 12 | 4 | 9 | |||||
| |||||||||
| 9 | 21 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 1,500 | 1,569 | 1,598 | 1,556 | 1,577 | 1,410 | |||
| 0 | ||||||||
| 0 | ||||||||
| |||||||||
| 348 | 181 | 143 | 119 | 98 | 56 | |||
| 17 | 35 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 32 | |||
| 4 | 2 | |||||||
| 10 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||
| |||||||||
| 85 | 151 | 158 | 199 | 108 | 112 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 3 | 7 | |||||||
| |||||||||
| |||||||||
| 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | |||
| 68 | 67 | 49 | 64 | 67 | 48 | |||
| 1 | 6 | |||||||
| 405 | 359 | 238 | 224 | 130 | 102 | |||
| 20 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 42 | 31 | |||
| |||||||||
| 27 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 13 |
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
As cost of oil stays high, 7000 airline jobs disappear.
"It’s a nice round number, and looks pretty darn good
from overhead, especially when several hundred Boeing
employees are actually forming the numerals."
Archive picture from:
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2007/08/7000.html
Unfortunately, with oil prices remaining above $128 per barrel, this is costing United Airlines 7000 jobs and this sounds permanent as they will be looking to raise cash.
America's second biggest airline said it will reduce its workforce by 13 per cent - or 7,000 staff - and axe more than a sixth of domestic routes in a desperate attempt to cut costs to cope with the surging cost of fuel.http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4380298.ece
A lot of families are going to have to find other ways to pay Freddie Mac and Fannie May their mortgages. Ooops, I forgot, the government (tax payers) are going to bail these two institutions out with $25 billion dollars ($25,000,000,000). This is one fifth of the 125 billion cost of S&L bailout crisis, except this bailout only helps two companies, no where near one fifth of the 747 institutions as in the 1980s... I wonder who will be next? http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/cbo_gse_rescue_costestim/?postversion=2008072216
So United Airlines has plunged to a $2.73bn ($273 000,000,000) loss in the quarter compared to a profit of $274m ($000,274,000,000) during the same period last year, when oil was $73.03 which at the time was considered high. I can't be bothered to draw up a graph to show all the differences as I am sitting with a good glass of wine, but it sounds like a pretty astronomical difference to me. Sorry to spell out the bad news. The good news is on the way, there is lots of it. Take this one as an example:
"My life is better, not worse, without a car"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/22/cctracy122.xmlFor once, I am at the forefront of a trend. Four months ago, I gave up my car. The decision was, in truth, rather forced upon me by the fact that I had to return it to my previous employer when I moved jobs. Still, I decided not to get another one.
The experiment has been a triumph. Not only has it become clear that this was a financially astute move, what with surging petrol prices and my habit of forgetting to pay the congestion charge.
It also turns out that I am at one with the zeitgeist. Our attitudes to travel are changing - trains, buses and bikes are in, cars and planes are out - and I just may be an agent of change.
Monday, July 21, 2008
World map of Peak Oil Production
It also seems mad to hear Al Gore was slammed for calling 100% of electricity to come from cheap, clean sources within 10 years. You can support Gore's challenge by signing this petition:"America must commit to producing 100% of our electricity from cheap, clean renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, within 10 years."
Here is a video about oil showing how demand is starting to exceed supply.
Latest news for today: July 22, 2008 - 2:54PM
Australian oil production has peaked: report
http://business.smh.com.au/business/australian-oil-production-has-peaked-report-20080722-3j63.html
Saturday, July 19, 2008
I don't need a bag
Obviously a lot of people share the feeling of madness when we receive bags, often doubled up and hardly filled.
Fortunately, Malibu are thinking of banning bags...
http://articles.latimes.com/2008/may/14/local/me-plastic14Santa Monica is considering a ban...
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/emeraldcity/2008/02/santa-monica-a.htmlFor me, I have my own ChicoBag on my key ring. I use it a lot:
http://www.bagselect.com
By the way, I have no association with this company, the band or restaurant :)
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Ryanair changes altitude by providing less flights
Well, here we go.... I could see this coming....
- http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4351005.ece
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/17/ryanair.baa
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Run on the bank in the USA July 2008
>>Intuitiveblogger April 1st 2008
>>
>>Does anyone feel we could see a run on the bank?
>>
Well, the American run on the Bank of 2008 is just beginning...
One guy (who had his life pension fund in Indy Mac) has just lost $68,000 dollars.
This is serious folks...... Watch out, Washington Mutual could be next!
The line in the bank was very long in Pasadena:
Monday, July 14, 2008
Double BLOG today: High Oil + Bank Run on Bastille day 2008
I forget... who again killed the electric car two years ago?
Price of Oil - One year comparison:
July 15th 2007:
$73.99 (Equates to $45.9 billion USA spending a month)
July 15th 2008:
$144.75 (Equates to $89.8 billion USA spending a month) Repeating: billion extra!
Formula:
Barrels * price * 30 days = Cost of one month of oil
20.68700 * 144.75 * 30 = 89 833.2975
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=20.687*143*30&btnG=Search
Oil spending today has increased in the USA by 49% in one year from $45.9 billion a month to $89.8 billion a month... ouch!
*I use figures for North America as an example. The same logic applies to everyone who uses oil!
Today, MSNBC asks the following question:
Isn’t it time to tap U.S. emergency oil reserves?
With gasoline prices showing no signs of easing, a number of readers are wondering why the U.S. doesn’t tap into the millions of barrels of crude oil it has stored up in case of an emergency. If this isn’t an emergency, they’re wondering, what is? http://ww.msnbc.msn.com/id/25643936/
Here is an article written on July 15th last year complaining about the prices at $73.99.
(Ouch again!)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/15/AR2007071501412.html?tid=informbox
Run on the Bank in the USA (Bastille day) 2008
Run on banks spells big trouble for US TreasuryIN A modern financial system nothing is more frightening than a run on the bank. The US has now suffered a series of them, and they are escalating in size and scope, posing a serious threat to an already reeling economy. Read on!
YES, intuition tells me people are going MAD. I drove past the Indymac bank building in Pasadena on Sunday and thought to myself.... "this bank is not the same today as it was yesterday, dear-O-dear-O-dear, and this apparently is still only the beginning". Here is the Indybank location on google maps: http://maps.google.com=indymac+pasadena"
IntuitiveBlogger: On April Fools day (04/01/2008) I wrote the following in my blog: IntuitiveBlogger
"Does anyone feel we could see a run on the bank, as what happened in England last September with Northern Rock? I don't see this as a joke. I think it could happen very easily and in a matter of months."
Well folks, I have to formally announce to you, this has actually happened TODAY (Bastille day July 14 2008) in the USA!
RUN ON THE BANK: Indymac / PASADENA USA
Click on images to read the newspaper stories:
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We are hearing this is just be the beginning....
(Some people are in deep S. H. eye. T)
The guardian.co.uk: Many more US bank failures likely after IndyMac
CNN: After IndyMac's failure, which bank could be next?
Yahoo Finance: Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Oil speculation or real prices?
I found this interesting blog from http://www.autoblog.com about the first trader who bought a barrel of oil for $100. As we approach the $150 mark this month, I wonder if the same oil trader (who apparently did this just for a laugh, or for being able to say he/she was the first to buy at $100) will push oil again to $150? If the trader who bought at $100 had held on to their $100 purchase for a while longer, he or she could have walked away with a fine profit. Seeing traders like this does make me think about oil speculation and I feel there may be some to a degree. However, I think it is very marginal (5% max is my feeling).
All the fuss from the media about mass speculation seems way out of proportion to me.
This is my 2 cents...
___________________________________________________One dude caused oil to hit $100/barrel
Posted Jan 3rd 2008 4:33PM by Jonathon Ramsey
Filed under: Etc.It was reported here yesterday that the price of a barrel of oil hit $100 for the first time ever. What actually happened was that one guy bought oil slightly above market price just so he could say "I was the first schmuck to buy oil at $100 a barrel!" The trader hasn't been identified, but after buying the minimum lot of 1,000 barrels from a colleague, he then sold them right back at a loss. It isn't clear what oil was trading at when he bought the barrels, but for his $100 per barrel order, he got $99.40 per barrel return. That means his moment of worldwide fame cost him $600, along with a few hours of jittery markets. Even if it was artificially induced, he was the first, and it probably won't be long before people are spending that much for real: Goldman Sachs predicts oil to be at $105 by year's end.
From: http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/03/one-dude-caused-oil-to-hit-100-barrel/
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