LA to Vegas $20 via train (Inconvenient oil prices)

Hi res version

Wouldn't this be great? Just think how much gas this would save on the 15 highway.



(Although Vegas still needs a lot of energy for all that air conditioning!)


I remember seeing this scenario two years ago:

I think once dollars are disappearing from people's pockets,
ignoring the problem will become inconvenient!

Intuition tells me with gas prices in California July 2008 averaging $4.61 we are going to see a different climate in six months from now. Things will change fast (even if 20 per cent of the oil inflated price is due to market speculation).

Oil $142

My prediction last week that a barrel of oil would reach $150 was wrong, it reached $142.
But this was still a HUGE increase and I believe it will reach $150 by the end of June.

Think before drilling for more oil...

George Bush has proposed overturning decades-old bans on drilling for oil off the US coast and in the pristine Alaskan wilderness.


http://www.prelovac.com/vladimir/pretty-blue-planet

57 percent of Americans support drilling in offshore or wilderness areas (ALASKA which is currently off-limits to drilling) and 41 percent oppose the idea.

(I must add -in a separate study, 60 percent of Americans also support conservation).



My intuition tells me the following:

A) The 57 percent of people who support further drilling (hoping to ease financial cost at the gas pump) are likely to support the republican party in the next election. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-king-we-will-pump-more-oil-847830.html

B) If drilling in Alaska goes ahead, output will only begin (in very small quantities) ten years from now in 2017... This would be far too late to change any prices on the global market. Nothing could happen any time soon and it would take 22 years from now to get a mere 200,000 barrels a day, something the Saudis are giving us as extra today.

QUOTE: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted last year that if the moratorium were lifted, it would take until 2012 to start leasing the areas and until 2017 before oil began to flow. The agency estimated that U.S. oil production would increase by 7 percent - about 200,000 barrels a day - by 2030, which it said would have an "insignificant" impact on oil prices.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/19/fossilfuels.environment

C) Oil production causes run offs from petroleum processing and petrochemical plants to dump tons of toxic wastes into nearby waters. Gas and oil pipelines will stanch many creeks and rivers swamping prime pastures and cropland. Furthermore, entire bays and lagoons along coasts will befouled by oil spills and runoff of toxic chemicals. This will harm the local wildlife. http://www.american.edu/TED/projects/tedcross/xoilpr15.htm#r2

Ecuador


Even if 200,000 barrels a day comes from Alaska in 22 years time, would this number of barrels per day significantly alter global prices? Last month, the Saudis increased oil output by 300,000 barrels (more than what Alaska would promise in 22 years) and the price of oil continued to go up.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/22/MNEV11CIVI.DTL&tsp=1

Has this generation left things too late?

I urge anyone before supporting the short sighted vote of spoiling Alaska, to take note and see if 200,000 barrels from Saudi Arabia has any effect on prices at $134.86 today. If 200,000 barrels does lower prices, let's see for how long. I'm starting to pay close attention to numbers: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hXSgafSMJJNVDOrb5WF1H-T_kKngD91F8DA80

Indeed I see I was correct, the price of crude oil has already risen today by $1.29 to $136.15. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7468555.stm

I will continue to propose our best solution now is to focus hard and fast (just as people did during the crisis of two world wars) on cutting down and substituting our non-renewable energy with renewable energy (smaller vehicles, better public transportation and less careless waste). Let us face it, if sensitive parts of Alaska are destroyed to try and bring oil to a cheaper price, we will only consume and waste more and this quantity would have little if any effect on global prices by 2030. The actual oil amount of oil estimated from Alaska is only enough to potentially power the USA for two years... then what? We're back to where we are now except the environment is messed up....

I always think of the smug guy who keeps an extra gallon or two of spare gas in case there was a real gas shortage. I say "great idea mate, but once you've used your spare supply, you're in the same boat as the rest of us" :)

News page

My intuition tells me oil is going to spike past $150 this week...

Oil demand is still rising faster than supply.

In fact, since the 1960s, we are burning more oil every year since 1980 than we discover and currently, we're burning five times more oil world wide than we are finding.



Ideally we should all be looking for ways to cut down or we're going to end up as toast!

You can read more news sources here:
http://intuitiveblogger.blogspot.com/2008/05/news-and-resource-links.html


West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil $/barrel

Brent Crude Oil $/barrel

OMG

You may or may not remember this accident that happened 8 years ago.
This Southwest Airlines flight from Vegas overshot the runway at Burbank .

The plane smashed past the airport fence, careened across the street
and ended up with collapsed landing gear, right next to a gas station.

But that's not the amazing part. Look at the picture below:




Oil prices have risen about 40% this year, reaching almost $140 a barrel earlier this week.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7464992.stm

Do we need all these cars anyway?

As gas shortages are starting to happen in Gt Britain this weekend, maybe the bicycle industry will pick up as we're given a moment to re-consider and think about whether many of us could use our bike or walk to the local store. I will share my own story with you on a future post!

intuitive blogger wants your stories about gas prices

Since the June 6th post featured on Parick.net I have noticed web stats have dramatically shot up on Alexa.com for the 1 wk Avg from 4,407,689 low to 645,007 high... How fun! I can write to an audience this week. If you are reading this blog, I would like to hear your true stories about how you recently had to adjust your weekly habits due to a sharp rise in gas and energy prices. I am collecting to write a blog and will not use your names. Please send stories to mdhp.animated@gmail.com.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/107170/Americans-Convinced-Rise-Gas-Prices-Permanent.aspx


Thanks and it is Friday 13th!

Here Comes Another Bubble v1.1 - The Richter Scales

Eye of the storm

"There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust"

Ben Bernanke:2005, Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Washington Post)









And now we have this to contend with....



What will happen when we see this?



I think we're still in the eye of the storm....


There are positive things that will come out of this transition to high gas prices.
I am already noticing a lot less traffic on the LA freeways..... :)
However, this is going to be something we have not experienced in over 70 years.

This video by Richard Heinberg (from Oct 5, 2006 when gas prices were $2.73) helps explain why the price of gas will rise and rise. Maybe we will be $8 per gallon at the pump, but how soon?

June 8 2008

Global crude ... has risen more than $17 in two days.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/07/useconomy.oil

Oil Prices Take a Nerve-Rattling Jump Past $138
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/07/business/07oil.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

(Intuition tells me people are going mad!)